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Number Cruncher Politics
Number Cruncher Politics is a political analysis and forecasting website and blog launched in 2014. The site is non-partisan and focusses on UK opinion polling, psephology, and statistical analysis. It is perhaps best known〔("If they can’t get the hang of shy Tories, polls should be axed" ),"''Sunday Times'', 10th May 2015"〕〔("How 'shy Tories' confounded the polls and gave David Cameron victory" ),"''The Guardian'', 8th May 2015"〕〔("The return of the shy Tories?" ),"''The Economist'', 7th May 2015"〕〔("The Blogger Who Beat the British Political Pollsters" ),"''Bloomberg Business'', 31st July 2015"〕〔("Was anyone right about the pre-election polls?" ),"''Understanding Uncertainty'' (University of Cambridge Statistical Laboratory), 15th May 2015"〕 for correctly predicting the polling failure at the 2015 UK general election.
==History==
On the eve the 2015 UK election, the site published a lengthy analysis〔("Is there a shy Tory factor in 2015?" ),"''Number Cruncher Politics'', 6th May 2015"〕 of opinion polling accuracy by its founder Matt Singh, based on decades of polling and election data. The report suggested that, contrary to the close race suggested by opinion polls and forecasts, the Conservative Party would win by more than six percentage points and could win an overall majority. In the event, the Conservative lead in the popular vote was 6.6 points, giving the party an overall majority of 12 seats.
At the Scottish independence referendum, the site was credited by FiveThirtyEight with the most accurate regional prediction.〔("Scottish Regions’ View On Self-Governance Hasn’t Changed Much Since 1997" ),"''FiveThirtyEight'', 19th September 2014"〕
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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